CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-28T22:16:25Z
## Message ID: 20240728-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-07-28T02:24Z.

Estimated speed: ~559 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 3/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001

2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-07-28T12:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~544 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 29/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001

3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-07-28T14:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~777 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 22/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow).  The leading edge or flank of the CMEs may reach Lucy at 2024-08-01T13:16Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-30T02:58Z, STEREO A at 2024-07-30T20:57Z, and Mars at 2024-08-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-31T05:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001, 2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001, and 2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_082600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

CME event (2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.8 flare from Active Region 13766 (S07E10) with ID 2024-07-28T01:39:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T01:51Z (see notifications 20240728-AL-001 and 20240728-AL-002) and M9.9 flare from Active Region 13766 (S08E10) with ID 2024-07-28T01:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T01:57Z (see notification 20240728-AL-003).

CME event (2024-07-28T12:12:00-CME-001) is associated with M7.7 flare from Active Region 13762 (S12W41) with ID 2024-07-28T10:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T10:42Z (see notifications 20240728-AL-004 and 20240728-AL-005).

CME event (2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.6 flare from Active Region 13768 (S15W25) with ID 2024-07-28T13:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-28T14:22Z.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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